Climate Change Adaptation Resource Kit

Assess Vulnerability and Risk: The Assessment Process

Small group discussions worked well for completing the tables in Elkford's vulnerability and risk assessment. February 2009.

A vulnerability and risk assessment can be the most challenging and rewarding part of the climate change adaptation planning process. Vulnerability assessment involves estimating how sensitive or susceptible a system (e.g. a community) is to climatic changes, and how easily the changes can be adapted to. A risk assessment adds a probability to each risk in order to determine priority planning strategies.

5-Step Process

1. Complete Sensitivity Analysis
2. Evaluate Adaptive Capacity
3. Assess Vulnerablity
4. Determine Probability
5. Establish Priority Risks and Opportunities

For more comprehensive information, please refer to CIG Guidebook: Conduct A Climate Change Vunerability Assessment

1. Complete Sensitivity Analysis

"In order to determine whether a system in a given planning area is sensitive to climate change, ask the question: 'Will the systems associated with this planning area be significantly affected by projected changes in climate?' If the system is likely to be affected as a result of projected climate change, it should be considered sensitive to climate change." ~Climate Impacts Group

You can determine the degree of sensitivity of a system by considering the following questions:

• How exposed is the system to the impacts of climate change?
• Is the system subject to existing stress?
• Will climate change cause the demand for a resource to exceed its supply?
• Does the system have limiting factors that may be affected by climate change?
• For plant and animal species, is a species of concern in your system currently located near the edge or lowest elevation portion of its range?
• What is the “impact threshold” associated with the system?

2. Evaluate Adaptive Capacity

"Adaptive capacity describes the ability of built, natural and human systems associated with a given planning area to accommodate changes in climate with minimum disruption or minimum additional cost. Evaluating adaptive capacity is the second step in the vulnerability assessment of a planning area. As a general rule, systems that have high adaptive capacity are better able to deal with climate change impacts."   ~Climate Impacts Group

This area should not be overlooked. The adaptive capacity needs to be assessed carefully as these barriers need to be overcome or the overall capacity needs to be increased to enable adaptation.   Note that you not only need to assess the ability of systems to adapt (often wrongfully assessed as static), but also the capacity to enact adaptation plans.  

To develop your own adaptive capacity table, consider the projected climate change impacts that will affect systems in your established planning areas. You should be guided by the questions:

• Are the systems associated with this planning area already able to accommodate changes in climate?
• Conversely, are there barriers to a system’s ability to accommodate changes in climate?
• Are the systems associated with this planning area already stressed in ways that will limit their ability to accommodate changes in climate?
• Is the rate of projected climate change likely to be faster than the adaptability of the systems in this planning area?
• Are there efforts already underway to address impacts of climate change related to systems in this planning area?

While assessing the adaptive capacity, you should give attention to what is lacking, knowledge, technology, resources, political will, and much more. All of these should be measured and attempts made to increase the capacity to adapt.

3. Assess Vulnerability 

Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability

"The final step in the vulnerability assessment process is to combine your findings about sensitivity and adaptability to determine how and where your community is vulnerable to climate change. Planning areas with systems that are sensitive to climate and less able to adapt to changes are generally considered to be vulnerable to climate change impacts. The vulnerability assessment can be a qualitative (high, medium, low) and/or quantitative exercise depending on the type of information available and the amount of resources available for a more quantitative investigation."  ~Climate Impacts Group

Do not consider your vulnerability assessment to be static. Existing vulnerabilities that you identify in this assessment will change, and new vulnerabilities will emerge as a result of:

• climate change impacts on the frequency, intensity, duration, and/or extent of specific climate events;
• the emergence of new threats, such as the introduction of a new invasive species or disease into the community;
• new information on how climate change may affect specific systems in planning areas within your community;
• implementation of preparedness actions;
• changes in the community’s size, economy, preferences, or other factors.

Flooding Vulnerability Summary, Elkford's Final Report 2009

4. Determine Probability

Vulnerability x Probabilty = Risk

What is the likelihood of some kind of event occuring? This is probability. You need to know probability in order to identify the level of risk.

Probabilities used in the risk assessment would ideally be based on information such as historical records, climate trends, more detailed modelling data, insurance company records (fire/flood), input from scientific and engineering experts, staff, council and community perceptions.

When determining probablity, ask if climate-related events in your community:

• Are unlikely to occur
• May occur once
• Are likely to occur at least once
• Are likely to occur several times
• Will occur frequently

The table below demonstrates how Probablity and Vulnerability were used to determine risks in Elkford:

Flooding Risk Assessment Summary, Elkford's Final Report 2009

                                                           Probability in 20-Year Planning Period

5. Establish Priority Risks and Opportunities

Once a risk level has been established, the community must also determine what level of risk they are willing to accept (risk tolerance). The outcome is to identify priority risk areas on which to focus climate change adaptation actions and strategies. For more comprehensive information on this topic, please refer to CIG Guidebook, Conduct a Climate Change Risk Assesment.

The table below is from Kimberley's Vulnerability and Risk Assessment process. It demonstrates how they identified priority risks with threat reduction.