Assess Vulnerability and Risk: Elkford's Process

 

Vulnerability assessment meeting during the Elkford process. February 4, 2008. Photo credit: Kevin Shepit Elkford's consultants highly adapted the CIG Preparing for Climate Change Guidebook and Ontario Municipal Risk Assessment Guidebook.

Tables 8.1 (sensitivity) and 8.2 (adaptive capacity) in the CIG Guidebook were used internally to consider how climate changes relate to sensitivities and adaptive capacities in Elkford.

In determining the vulnerability of each priority area, Elkford staff, council members, community advisory committee members, the Mayor, and members of the CBT Learning Network were engaged in a full-day workshop. Participants first addressed the following questions:

  • What are Elkford’s weak spots (vulnerabilities) in each priority planning area?
  • What should we pay attention to, in order of priority?
  • What further information do we need?

The process of the vulnerability and risk assessment aimed to answer these questions:

  • What are the potential impacts of wildfire, flooding and water availability "incidents" in Elkford?
  • What is the likelihood that some of these impacts will be seen in Elkford?
  • Where has Elkford already acted to mitigate these impacts?
  • What are potential responses for mitigating risks with minimal disruption and cost?

For water and flooding risk topics, Elkford's adaptation team walked the participants through the research in their sensitivity and adaptive capacity tables to ensure they had sufficient understanding and loose consensus on their contents. The tables below provide examples of sensitivity and adaptive capacity tables used in Elkford’s vulnerability assessment process. 

 

 Determining Sensitivity - Sample Evacuation Risk Table

 

Determining Sensitivity

Wildfire Risk Topic

Current and expected Risk

Expected Climatic and

Non-climatic changes

Degree of Sensitivity

(L,M,H)

 

 

 

Evacuation of whole or part of community

Evacuations limited by single access road into Elkford (Hwy. 43)

 

No firesafe staging area or evacuation plan

 

Are there other current and expected risks associated with this topic?

Warmer climate, more precipitation in the winter and spring, less precipitation in the summer

 

Warmer temperatures will lead to drier forests and an increased frequency and severity of wildfires

The length of the fire season in the Columbia Basin is projected to increase by 38 to 52 days by 2080

 

Are there other climatic and non-climatic changes that should be considered?

 

Is Elkford’s sensitivity- low, medium, or high?

 

 

 

 Determining Adaptive Capacity - Sample Flooding Risk Table

 

Determining Adaptive Capacity

Flood Risk

Potential Adaptation Actions

Barriers

 

Adaptive Capacity

(L, M, H)

Flooding of buildings or lands in Elkford

· Maintain existing areas of marshland, forests and parks along the river.

· Implement a flood warning protocol to alert residents of projected flood events

· Identify ‘no-development’ zones in floodplain

· Update 200-yr flood line.

· Direct road runoff into ‘swales’ built with sand filters

· Allow infiltration to retention ponds or wetlands

· Require new developments to use pervious materials in construction of driveways, parking lots, etc.

 

What other potential adaptive actions are there?

What are the barriers to implementing these actions?

Is Elkford’s adaptive capacity low, medium, or high?