Assess Vulnerability and Risk: Definitions

 

Vulnerability = Exposure x Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity

Risk = Vulnerability x Probability

 

Terms relating to vulnerability:

Vulnerability

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vulnerability Assessment

 

The degree to which a natural or human system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change and additional human-induced pressures. The vulnerability of a system is determined by the magnitude and rate of climate change to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

a) High: High sensitivity + low adaptive capacity

b) Moderate: Medium sensitivity + medium adaptive capacity

c) Low: Low sensitivity + high adaptive capacity 

 

Estimate the vulnerability of certain planning areas to climate change considering the potential of feasible adaptations to reduce adverse impact.

Note: A vulnerability assessment is not static as vulnerabilities change over time.

Sensitivity

The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by a climate-related stressor or human-induced pressure. It is affected by changes in climate conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation) or impacts (e.g., wildfires, floods, storms).

a) Low: Affects from climate change unlikely

b) Medium: Affects from climate change possible

c) High:  Affects from climate change very likely

Resilience

 

The amount of change a system can undergo without changing state, or the degree to which the system is able to rebound or recover from a stressor or driver.

Adaptation

 

Refers to adjustments in ecological-social-economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli, their effects and/or impacts.

Adaptive Capacity

 

The ability of a system to adjust to climate change and moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences.

a) Low: Actions are difficult and costly

b) Moderate: Actions possible with some disruptions and/or costs

c) High: Actions possible with minimum disruptions and costs

 

Exposure – Exposure to a climate-related hazard

Probability – The likelihood that an impact will occur (20 year time frame)

Risk Assessment – Process to rank climate change risks to identify high and low priority adaptation strategies

 

Risk Assesment Planning guide

 

 

Negligible- No action required

 

Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable

 

Moderate- Some controls required to reduce risk to lower levels

 

High - High priority, control measures required

 

Extreme - immediate controls required